WrightwoodCalif.com Forum
Public Forums => Disaster Awareness & CERT => Topic started by: Wrightwood on May 23, 08, 09:36:17 AM
-
-
THE GREAT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SHAKEOUT 2008
ShakeOut is One-of-a-Kind
The Great Southern California ShakeOut is a week of special events featuring the largest
earthquake drill in U.S. history, organized to inspire Southern Californians to get ready for
big earthquakes, and to prevent disasters from becoming catastrophes.
An Earthquake Drill for the Record Books
At 10 a.m. on November 13, 2008, millions of southern Californians will "Drop, Cover, and
Hold On." Why? An enormous earthquake is our future, and the ShakeOut drill is our
chance to practice what to do when it happens. Individuals, families, businesses, schools
and organizations will join firefighters, police officers, and other emergency responders
(involved in the statewide "Golden Guardian" exercise) in our largest-ever earthquake
preparedness activity. Don't miss out!
ShakeOut is based on a potential 7.8 magnitude earthquake on the southern San Andreas
Fault. This type of earthquake occurs in southern California every 150 years on average,
and the last was 151 years ago! Dr. Lucy Jones of the U.S. Geological Survey has led a
group of over 200 scientists, engineers, and others to study the likely consequences of this
enormous earthquake in great detail.
-
http://www.shakeout.org/
(http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1324/images/coverphoto.jpg)
-
(http://www.wrightwoodfsc.com/news/ShakeOutCajonPass.jpg)
-
Well you got my attention!! :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o
-
(http://www.wrightwoodfsc.com/news/ShakeOutCajonPass.jpg)
While the I-15 is the hwy that will effect us the most, we should remember that I-10 will also be lost as well as, quite possibly, I-5 and I-8 which would leave Hwy-101 as the only Major road into the Southland. That's assuming that the 101 doesn't suffer major landslides that would render it unusable.
We, as a community, need to be ready to be alone for an extended period of time.
-
This may sound really stupid, but after reading some other topics, and what folks get really riled up about, .... this topic should really make us realize that we need to give up our other differences, and learn to love each other as a community, if and when we have a major disaster up here. We will all need to depend upon each other, in a BIG way........ And we will all need to believe and pray in our own ways.
-
Rail traffic will be disrupted too.
-
We should set up some sort of communication system for the people who work down the hill but have their children/family in Wrightwood. If I was cut off from getting home and could not be there...I dont even want to think about what might happen.
If there were people to contact for assistance or a checklist that showed all the people who commute. I know that seems daunting but it might help with locating...*gulp*,...survivors.
Just thinking out loud.... :clock: :-\
-
We should set up some sort of communication system for the people who work down the hill but have their children/family in Wrightwood.
Katwest13 that is one of the functions of the Wrightwood Communications Group. Ham radio will be the only reliable source of communications during a major earthquake similar to the Shake Out Scenario being conducted in Nov 2008.
-
Katwest13 that is one of the functions of the Wrightwood Communications Group. Ham radio will be the only reliable source of communications during a major earthquake similar to the Shake Out Scenario being conducted in Nov 2008.
I have no knowledge of HAM radio. I am assuming that I would need one(a radio) to get in contact with that group, right? How can I get involved with this group as it pertains to emergency information and preparing? Sorry to sound so ill- informed.
-
Katwest13,
First, you need to be licensed by the FCC to operate an Amateur (or HAM) Radio. There is quite a bit to learn and know. It's not like turning to channel two and talking to someone. You just missed the Ham radio licensing class last weekend. It was announced elsewhere on this forum. I teach that class. I suggest you purchase a copy of Gordon West's Technician Class license manual and study. There are tests available somewhere on most weekends. Of course you need someone else to communicate with. Spouse or child, so it's good if two people in a family get licensed.
You can get the book from Amateur Electronic Supply in Las Vegas 1.800.634.6227 www.aesham.com
order W5Y GWTM-06
The next two day class in Wrightwood will be in about six months unless there is a lot of interest sooner.
-
KatWest13, each family should probably plan on making its own arrangements for emergencies really, but very likely several families can band together and share information sources. Does one family have friends or relatives with room and resources to fetch and house several children for a week or two? Does that family have a ham radio license and emergency supplies in place? These things can all be worked out well in advance with some forethought. The studying for a ham license may come easier to someone who studied physics and earth science in school, but almost anyone can learn what you need for the license with some extra studying.
The good thing about it is that it's possible to get that ham license and use the ham radio frequencies effectively without that science background. It will really pay off in case of The Big One, or in large/widespread fires and windstorms.
One thing that I hope they address in the Golden Guardian scenarios is downed powerlines. As I commute around the area, I can't help but notice just how many roads could be completely blocked for hours or days by live lines crossing the roads, and who knows how long before Edison could get crews to even try and clear main arteries. The power will be off in a really big quake, but I seldom see any mention of windstorms or fires that can isolate an area in this fashion.
-
Is it possible to get a list of ham radio operators in the area, and their addresses. I know that is personal information, but it is unlikely that many of us will get trained, and it would be great to have access to some with the training. Has this been discussed?
-
MountainMom hams name and mailing address are public record.
If you go to this website you can find all Amateur Radio operators that use Wrightwood as their mailing address.
http://www.qrz.com/i/names.html
If you take CERT training and belong to a division group you have ham radio operators assigned to each division.
-
Plans are underway for the entire community of Wrightwood to participate in this years Golden Guardian 2008 Great Shakeout.
All residents, business, organizations, camps, schools and Church's will be requested to participate.
Wrightwood's exercise will take place on Sat Nov 15.
More details as they become available - please mark your calendar as this will be the largest drill ever conducted in this community.
-
Plans are underway for the entire community of Wrightwood to participate in this years Golden Guardian 2008 Great Shakeout.
All residents, business, organizations, camps, schools and Church's will be requested to participate.
Wrightwood's exercise will take place on Sat Nov 15.
More details as they become available - please mark your calendar as this will be the largest drill ever conducted in this community.
Any news on this exercise. Where/who can we go to for details on participation? Many of the Camps wish to participate if our schedules will allow. Thanks!
-
Sorry for the delay as the planning group for Wrightwood's Golden Guardian 2008 has been finalizing details.
Starting on Nov 13 at 9:55 AM:
The KW6WW Disaster Preparedness Net will conduct an exercise during the Great ShakeOut main event on Thurs Nov 13 at 9:55 am. Tune your ham radio (or Wrightwood's Online Scanner) to the Table Mountain 2 meter repeater at 9:55 am and be part of this important exercise.
Wrightwood's Community Wide Disaster Exercise will take place Nov 15th.
The exercise will include a full activation of CERT trained individuals. While CERT Teams are surveying neighborhoods, they will be going door to door throughout the community informing families, businesses, camps, organizations and schools on how they can participate with a simple check-in method by phone, email, fax or Ham radio.
Wrightwood's Emergency Radio Station "1610 AM" will play an active role by notifying the public with current information during the Nov 15 exercise.
All community members are urged to participate!
By the beginning of the week further details will be released.
-
Wrightwood's community wide Exercise takes place next Saturday Nov 15.
Here's the latest copy of the Exercise Plan:
http://www.kw6ww.com/CERT/WGGDE.ExPlan.ver8a.pdf
-
Where do I find a map of where the fault line runs through Wrightwood?
-
(http://www.wrightwoodcalif.com/maps/WWFault1.jpg)
(http://www.wrightwoodcalif.com/maps/WWFault2.jpg)
-
The fault line shown in the previous posting are approximate but give a fairly close representation of its relationship to the community.
-
(http://www.wrightwoodfsc.com/Quake/WWShake11.15d.gif)
-
I will be out of town, but I will have my household call for the check in....
-
Angelwolf that's perfect!
-
-
I would love to go but can't - I work all day. They don't have anything after 5pm?
-
In recent years, an e-mail has been circulating which describes an alternative to the long-established "Drop, Cover, and Hold On" advice. The so-called "triangle of life" and some of the other actions recommended in the email are potentially life threatening, and the credibility of the source of these recommendations has been questioned.
(http://earthquakecountry.info/images/icon_dropcoverholdon.gif)
Office of Emergency Services
San Bernardino County Fire Department recommends to look at this website:
http://earthquakecountry.info/dropcoverholdon/
-
duck, cover and hold on sounds like the aftermath of a conversation with the missus after i say, "leftovers again?"
i'll take my chances with the earthquake.
-
John-
Is the school district participating in tomorrow's excercise? I work for the district but have not heard a word about it. But that may be because I don't work at an actual school site, but a support service.
-
I'm not sure about Snowline Schools, as far as the Great Shakeout on Thursday but I'd be very surprised if they didn't drop, cover and hold on at 10 am.
Wrightwood Elementary will be checking into the Sat exercise for our Wrightwood community exercise.
-
Spoke to the District office and since Snowline had their own district wide disaster drill last month, they decided not to "interrupt instruction" with tomorrow's drill. Some school sites might be participating, but that was left up to each site.
-
To get an idea what we would experience in a 7.8 earthquake, go to the following site, click on "Cajon Pass" and hang on.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/nca/simulations/shakeout/
-
Is it true that in an emergency anyone can use a ham radio?
-
Is it true that in an emergency anyone can use a ham radio?
No, it is not true, to the best of my knowledge. A licenced Amateur radio operator (or Ham) has to maintain control of the station, meaning the radio(s) in his/her possession. For example, if my wife or I cannot use our radios during an emergency, our son does not have the right to use the radio in our absence.
The fines and imprisionment terms for using a radio without the operator present and in control can be severe.
As a licenced operator, you have to play by the rules laid out by the FCC, as well as unwritten "gentlemen's agreements" that you learn by becoming a Ham.
During an emergency, a licenced Ham MAY use radios and frequencies that are outside of the bands that they may be licenced for, but only for the duration of the emergency.
Interestingly, a licenced Ham does have the ability to use a police radio to call for help to the agencies' dispatch center, in the event that the officer is not able to use the radio themselves. The police DO NOT have a reciprocal right to use a Ham operators radio, unless the officer is also a licenced Ham for the frequencies covered by the radio.
Getting an amateur radio licence is really not that difficult, nor that expensive. Radios themselves start at about $130.00 for a new unit, and used ones are even cheaper.
But, you do need to have the licence to use that radio, as well as the knowledge to use it properly and safely.
N4MAN
-
Common sense and the circumstances of the emergency could dictate what a person would do. In a genuine emergency with no other means of communication available one should never worry about doing the right thing. One can deal with the legal ramifications later.
-
Is it true that in an emergency anyone can use a ham radio?
As RennMan pointed out, it is not true. Of course you can do anything illegal you want, if you feel so inclined.
Ham radio operators are trained for a reason. They know how to use radios, what frequencies to use and most importantly, protocols used to communicate with others. The last thing any licensed ham wants is someone on the frequency who does not know what they are doing. It simply would delay other emergency and priority traffic from taking place.
Today was a perfect example of why ham radio operators in this area are better prepared than most. A Golden Guardian Disaster communication net was held today with dozens of hams practicing their communication radio skills. As net control of that exercise conducted today, I would not have fielded radio traffic from anyone not properly identifying themselves using FCC protocol while there is other emergency radio traffic to be handled. Simply put - get an Amateur Radio License if you plan on using a ham radio and expect other hams to respond.
-
Then expect a lot of folks to be knocking on their local ham radio operator neighbor's doors after an emergency... :2thumbsup:
-
Great thought.
I don't know of a ham who wouldn't be willing to help!
-
I've already told my neighbors to knock on my door if there is an emergency or the power is out. I'm sure many fellow operators have done the same.
-
Just wanted to say the Mr. "Wrightwood" conducted a great orderly exercise today. The nets each Sunday have proven to teach, give experience, give confidence to all that participate. Without order there would be chaos. Keeping usage to licensed operators keeps order.
Wrightwood is very fortunate to have so many dedicated people who care, give their time, and are forward thinking. Having a system that works is extremely important. I'm proud to be part of the communications group. I encourage all to step forward and prepare yourself so you can take care of your issues, and help others.
Anyone can knock on my door also when they need help.
-
I received my refrigerator magnet today. Thanks everyone!
-
Thanks Goldie as the Fire Safe Council went to a lot of effort to produce an emergency reference magnet with the most accurate and current information available. Every phone number was called and verified for accuracy just prior to printing. The numbers listed for the most part are 24x7 phone numbers, and get you to dispatch.
The CERT crews have done an incredible job on delivering 25% of the residence today. Tomorrow they will deliver another 25% and on Saturday the balance of the 50%. Every household in Wrightwood will be cover for a total of about 2,800.
We've been getting phone calls and emails requesting magnets from weekenders concerned they wouldn't get one ;D
-
I didn't get my magnet/door package today, but I did get a magnet about 3 weeks ago when I attended the Fire Safe Council meeting for October. That is a great place to learn a lot of very valuable information. :2thumbsup: The magnet has been in a prominent place on my fridge since then.
I thought that this morning's exercise was very valuable and informative. As a new ham, I was monitoring on my ham radio, not the 1610 one, and it was fascinating. John, you were very efficient as net control for the exercise, thanks! Saturday will be a wonderful learning experience for all of us.
-
I got my magnet yesterday and it is on my fridge. Thank you for all the incredible work you all are doing!
-
Those who did not get their "doorhangers," Thursday, may be among those destined to receive them on their door knobs Friday or Saturday!
-
At the risk of offending the sensibilities of some amateur radio operators, and based on a 30 year association with same (KL7FBI, on beautiful Shemya Island, Akaska, and now re-licensed as WI6SLD), I have to throw my two cents in regarding the non-licensed use of a radio:
While it is true that non-licensed use is illegal, there is the legal concept of "In Extremis" which dictates that when in a life and death situation, virtually anything goes. Reference: gaares.org/documents/Amateur%20Radio%20usage%20by%20non-Hams.pdf (http://gaares.org/documents/Amateur%20Radio%20usage%20by%20non-Hams.pdf)
The rationale is that if a life is threatened, one can use whatever means necessary to summon help, or to provide assistance. The example in the attached link is a good example.
More pertinent would be a scenario such as this:
John Doe, with no amateur radio license, drives down Highway 2 and spots a car over the side. He runs over to the car to render aid, and finds a licensed amateur radio operator unconscious in the vehicle, and bleeding profusely.
Doe's cell phone has no signal, but he sees a nice dual-band amateur radio in the victim's car. He keys the mike and starts asking for help...
Illegal? On paper, yes.
Will John Doe be prosecuted? Not likely.
Should he feel bad because he "broke the law"? Not even.
When I was stationed in Thailand (7th Radio Research Field Station) I learned a story about one of the queens in the old kingdom who fell overboard off of a barge. She couldn't swim, and it was strictly illegal to touch a member of the royal family, so the boat crew and others watched her drown...
Of the many amateur radio operators I have known over the years, I have always detected a prevelence of operating only in strict black and white, concrete thinking paradigms.
While that is important if you're following schematics while building a radio, it can be an impediment when real life situations arise that dictate thinking out of the box.
My opinion, for what it's worth, is you do what you have to do in an emergency, and worry about the fallout later.
I think it's a disservice to tell people on this site that if there's an emergency, and they have the chance to summon help on an amateur radio, that they should not do so unless they're licensed.
-
I think it's a disservice to tell people on this site that if there's an emergency, and they have the chance to summon help on an amateur radio, that they should not do so unless they're licensed.
Immediate life/death situation, like you described? Yah, I understand that completely.
By the same token, we certainly don't want to give people the impression that they should just buy a radio "that I'll just use in case of emergency", and not worry about training (and yeah, ok, licensing).
-
No door hangers or magnets here. ???
-
No door hangers or magnets here. ???
You should have one by now, I believe, since the drill is over. PM your address to me and I will follow up with your division leader to see what the story is.
-
I know they ran out near the end of the day. I am a member and didn't get one at my house. All in all good day to work out the kinks in the system.
-
We did not run out. Some divisions may have not calculated how many they needed and were short.
If anyone needs a magnet, come by the Wrightwood Fire Safe Council meeting next next Tuesday night and we'll have some there. If you don't make the WFSC meeting then send me a P/M and I'll make arrangements for you to get one.
-
My opinion, for what it's worth, is you do what you have to do in an emergency, and worry about the fallout later.
I think it's a disservice to tell people on this site that if there's an emergency, and they have the chance to summon help on an amateur radio, that they should not do so unless they're licensed.
Desert5150, I totally agree with you on the concept of emergencies, but I wish to include this thought on the matter. I'm a new ham, about 3-1/2 months old in "ham age". ;) And I will have to admit that until I took the class in July, passed the exam in late July, and got my ham license at the beginning of August, that I had absolutely NO knowledge of what to even do with a radio. I'm sure that I'm not the only one on the planet who is as extremely challenged as I am, electronically and mechanically. There is no way, that prior to this, that I could have even looked at someone's radio and even would have known how to turn it on, let alone talk on it. I still only know how to talk on my own HT, with very limited knowledge, and I don't think I could figure out someone's radio if I came across your scenario, if it were built into the car. I doubt if I'm the only one. And I'm not a stupid person, just not electronically inclined. :)
Dang, this whole thing is really making me more aware of my own need to take my HT with me when I'm out and about. My brain still isn't programmed to remember to take it. And I definitely need to get myself more prepared for real emergencies. :2thumbsup:
-
Don't misunderstand. I know that unlicensed use is illegal. My point is simply that in a life and death emergency, anything goes. The though of unlicensed people using amateur freqs on a regular basis is as scary as having a bunch of yahoos using CB radio... Oh, wait. Too late on that one.
Anyway, if anyone sees me about to go room temperature, please feel free to use my radio, or gun, or whatever will keep me going. Thank you in advance.
-
Some years back (long before cell phones) I had a need to use a CHP radio to report that the officer had been involved in an accident and was unconscious. I think we can all agree that a citizen using a LEO's radio is a no-no, but when the responding officers (all 26 units of them) arrived, NO ONE asked me why I used the radio to call for help.
-
Thanks Ken for sharing the story. Common sense dictates what we need to do to save another person's life :thumbs:
-
WOW! I love my magnet! Amazing how you clever folks fit all the pertinent info on there. Thank you! :2thumbsup: Thank you! Thank You!
-
It will take a while to assemble all the numbers. Here's a few preliminary numbers:
Over 100 CERT members showed up after the simulated 7.8 earthquake.
Over 500 phone call were answered at the phone bank.
Over 1,350 community members checked in.
2,800 houses were visited by CERT members.
Not one dollar of county, state or federal money was spent on this disaster exercise. It was paid for entirely by Wrightwood volunteer groups.
Here's a few shots for yesterday's Exercise.
(http://www.wrightwoodcalif.com/WGGDE/MD_WGGDE.CERT1a.JPG)
(http://www.wrightwoodcalif.com/WGGDE/MD_WGGDE.CERT2a.JPG)
(http://www.wrightwoodcalif.com/WGGDE/MD_WGGDE_Comm1a.JPG)
-
Nice photos. Would have been nicer to see some CERT folks on DFR, Desert Front Road is part of the Wrightwood community too although we are often treated like the red headed step child... :'(
No soup for you today.
-
The WGGDE planning staff did discuss Desert Front Road homes during the planning process and felt it was outside the scope of this first functional exercise.
One problem is not having correct mapping of the area due to all the dirt roads and that is critical for the planning process. There is currently an effort being made by SBCFD Station 101 to have the areas like DFR and Horse Canyon roads properly mapped and underway.
The community volunteer groups WDPT, WCERT, WFSC & WCG have made a great deal of progress in the past few years and still have plenty of work in front of them. Residents living in areas like DFR need to become more active with our community groups in order to help the process.
I know for a fact that divisions/branches are being considered for Desert Front Road, Horse Canyon, Table Mountain and Jackson Lake areas.
-
My 2 cents:
I can only speak for our end of town but the CERT Group is doing a great job. Members have checked in on me many times, especially during the recent power outages. While I'm still pretty good at getting my rear end in gear it's nice to know that these dedicated people are there if we need them.
Just a thought and I have mixed emotions about broadcasting this information; during dinner the other night Larry shared a thought with me and I felt it should be passed on. The bright pink door hangers that were left on residents doors, with the magnetic refrigerator stickers are great and the information is valuable. One concern is that there are many of these bright hangers still left on neighbors doors. They were left there on Saturday; it's now three days later. Maybe, if your neighbors home has it's bright pink door hanger still hanging there, you can remove it and hold onto it until you see your neighbor then give it to them. Again, don't get me wrong...they are a benefit to our community, however, the longer they hang there the more they are announcing that this house may be vacant and now a target.
-
Kaikapu thanks for the suggestion on picking up your neighbors door hanger and giving it to them when they return to Wrightwood. It was felt that the information would be wanted by most residents even if they were out of town for a few days or a weekender. There are plans on having volunteers remove the remaining door hangers which is more than can be said for phone books left at houses for months or tree trimming service notices left on doors.
A big thank you is extended to the community for the unbelievable response. More than 25% of the population of this community were checked-in!
-
There are plenty of folks wanting to know when the next CERT class in Wrightwood will be held.
I just found out that the next round of Wrightwood CERT training will take place in Wrightwood on the following Saturdays: January 24, 31, and Feb 7
If you are interested in signing up or have further questions contact Kim Floyd at: (760) 249-5385
Or by Email to Jack Jacobs: mjacobs70@verizon.net
-
Mr. Wrightwood,
Thanks for the info and thanks for reassuring me that there's already a plan in place to handle the hangers; good planning on their part.
I can't take credit for the suggestion. I really came from Larry.
Take care and keep up the good work.
-
The WGGDE Planning Team put together a Newsletter on last weeks Exercise:
http://www.wrightwoodcalif.com/WGGDE/WGGDE.News.pdf
-
Major Southern California quake drill reveals significant gaps in preparations
By Jia-Rui Chong
December 27, 2008
The largest earthquake drill in U.S. history, held last month in Southern California, found some serious gaps in local earthquake planning, prompting utility companies, emergency managers and others to rethink their planning for a major temblor.
The Great Southern California Shakeout was the first time so many agencies and earthquake officials teamed up to examine what would happen if a huge quake struck the region, in this case a 7.8 magnitude temblor. Many Shakeout participants said they have gone through earthquake drills before, but never with a scenario so detailed.
Based on the results of the Nov. 13 experiment, in which each agency estimated damage and emergency services requirements based on detailed quake scenarios developed by supercomputers, officials said they will need more emergency workers, better sources of water and come up with new ways of restoring electricity.
Fire protection
For local fire officials, one of the most worrisome estimates from the drill was the 1,600 fires expected to ignite with lamps overturning, electrical wires shorting and natural gas lines bursting open. Many fires would grow out of control as firefighters struggle to get fire engines across damaged roads and water stopped coming out of their hoses, experts found.
An estimated 200 million square feet of property would be damaged in the blazes. The fires would cause more than 900 deaths -- about half of the total for the earthquake.
"To hear it quantified like that, it more than got my attention," said Los Angeles County Fire Chief Michael Freeman. "This was really the worst-case scenario for us. Today, if this were to happen, we would need outside assistance."
Unfortunately, Freeman said, they probably would not get help for quite some time because neighboring fire agencies would be fighting fires in their own districts and departments from Northern California would have to make their way around damaged highways. Because they can't afford to multiply their staffs, several fire agencies are looking into training more members of the community to be first responders, learning such skills as basic first aid and turning off gas lines.
Freeman said the county is also looking into ways to better draw water from other sources during a disaster, such as pools or storm drains that are collecting runoff from broken pipes.
Water supplies
But the drill also raised troubling questions about how much water would be available after a major quake. Of all utilities, water would take the longest time to restore, experts found. Some communities might have to wait six months for taps to flow again.
The Shakeout helped officials at East Valley Water District in San Bernardino County estimate that they would see about 1,000 leaks in their 450 miles of pipe because about 40% of their pipes are made from a material that is particularly brittle in earthquakes, said Gary Sturdivan, the district's safety and regulatory manager. All 78,000 of its customers would lose water for some period because all of the agency's reservoirs are on one side of the fault and all of its wells and distribution systems are on the other.
As a result, the district plans to stock more replacement pipe parts in repair sheds near those areas and store more bottled water for their employees, employees' families that might stay at their facilities and their customers who need water, Sturdivan said.
The water agencies are also retooling their mutual-aid agreements so they can figure out how to prioritize different agencies' needs and distribute replacement parts or water from other states fairly, he said.
"I think our agency, like a lot of water agencies, was pretty prepared, but it was glaring that we have a long way to go," Sturdivan said. "It was a little overwhelming."
Electrical supplies
The 7.8 temblor modeled by the test would leave large swaths of Los Angeles, San Bernardino and Riverside counties without power, according to estimates by a working group that included utility companies representatives. Breaks in natural gas pipelines could add delays because many plants use gas to generate electricity. It probably would take about 10 days to restore power to 90% of customers, the estimates found.
But Jim Kelly, senior vice president of transmission and distribution for Southern California Edison, said even that is an optimistic forecast.
"The problem is harder than people initially think," he said. Although Edison already uses equipment designed to be safer in earthquakes, such as transformers with low centers of gravity, Kelly worried about other utilities and parts vendors that would probably be having problems at the same time.
"If we lose bridges or roadways, how are we going to get people or materials to the job site," Kelly asked. "We don't know if rail transit will be available if we don't have roadways."
When Kelly added these potential problems together, he estimated it would take two to four weeks to restore power to the vast majority of Edison's 12 million customers.
"The scenario's value to us was in identifying that we have to look broader than just our stuff," he said.
Lucile Jones, the U.S. Geological Survey seismologist who served as the chief scientist for the Shakeout, said she hopes the drill gave agencies concrete data that will help them better prepare.
"People don't need to be convinced an earthquake can happen," she said. "They need concrete statements so they know what to do about it."
The effort to develop the scenario cost about $500,000, engaged some 300 experts and took two years to complete.
Geophysicists wanted to plot a plausible event, so they started the earthquake at a part of the San Andreas that has not moved for more than 300 years. They decided the energy stored in that part of the fault could cause a 200-mile rupture moving northwest from Bombay Beach, at the Salton Sea. Quakes of this size are possible, Jones explained, because they rocked San Francisco in 1906 and Fort Tejon in 1857.
Seismologists used the supercomputers to calculate the shaking, generating data for 25,000 points of a grid laid out over Southern California.
Geologists, engineers, utility managers and other experts used the data to estimate the damage, which included more than 10,000 landslides, more than 50 sewage spills and more than 100,000 addresses losing phone and Internet service for two or more days. Motorists would have to wait one to two weeks to use arterial roads in cities such as Los Angeles and seven months to use damaged highways.
Public health experts estimated some 1,800 people would die and 50,000 would be seriously injured. The economic costs of the disaster, including the business interruption, would total about $213 billion.
The scientists purposefully avoided a worst-case scenario but wanted to analyze an earthquake far more damaging than the 1994 Northridge earthquake, which had a magnitude of 6.7. "We wanted people to understand how bad it could be," Jones said. "Some people think, 'I've been through Northridge,' but getting through Northridge is not enough."
jia-rui.chong@latimes.com