WrightwoodCalif.com Forum
Public Forums => Disaster Awareness & CERT => Topic started by: MojaveSidecar on Jan 22, 13, 08:44:38 PM
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Hi All
I've been reading/studying extensively much literature about the dire financial straits that our USA and California State economies are in, not to mention the City of San Bernardino.
I dont want this tread to be anything about the politics that got us here... I want to focus on the economic disaster's impact on our community, if any, and how we should prepare for it ..... more along the lines of the same way CERT focuses on earthquakes/forest fire preparedness.
From what I have been studying, and assuming its true, the USA will have to default on its debt in the coming months or so... and the first effect of such a default will be a run will be on Jensens, Mt Hardware and the MiniMart.
Assuming such a scenario is true, what should we be doing as a community to be prepared? In my opinion, it is better to talk about this now, before it "might" happen instead of after the fact.
Should we be stocking up on food and water?
What if Marshall law is declared and we are all forced to relocate to a FEMA camp in Adelanto... would you go?
What if the government comes for our guns etc.... should we resist as a lot of other communities are planning? or should we cave in?
Again... this thread is not to talk about the rights and wrongs of anything political... it is just to discuss what, if anything we should do as a community to prepare for an economic disaster along the same lines as CERT prepares for an earthquake or forest fire.
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Does this thread really belong in this forum? I mean seriously, maybe next I can talk about what to do if aliens land and we do our Independence Day impression. Surely there are other places you can discuss this.
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Mohavesidecar I think that it is a great topic, but I was just saying to my wife that you won't get very many intelligent responses from this town. Sad to say, but I just wish somebody would prove me wrong. And YES that topic does belong on this forum. It affects us all! I would be proud to vote that it does belong on this forum!
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:o
A new topic is up to Wrightwood (the forum owner, not the town). Meanwhile I'll keep preparing for the zombie apocalypse.
I know, I know, I'm going. 8)
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So you are admitting you are a zombie? ;)
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I really want to comply with the rules of this forum....
And there seems to be no issue with earthquake/forest fire preparedness via community CERT...
But it seems as soon as I mention a "Economic Disaster" things seem different.
My only question is ..... Should we as a community be prepared for the coming economic collapse as we are for the other CERT events/
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Thank you Mojave for bringing this up.
It would be nice as a small town / Community we could all work together for a way to prepare for any disaster (economic, biological, nuclear, earthquake, or anything else).
But it is VERY sad to say that many think everything is fine will be fine, and "nothing bad will EVER happen here in America.
That and if it does our government will save us. Never mind what we saw during Katrina, and recently on the East Coast during and after Sandy, and the fact the US government did nothing to help any in those disasters. In fact they usually made matters worse.
I would suggest anyone interested in such a thing communicate via PM. It is NEVER good to tell EVERYONE what might have already been put away for such a thing. Otherwise people will get complacent, and just figure that someone else will take care of them once a disaster strikes.
Before moving to WW we lived in a loft complex in downtown LA. There were 400+ units in our building and we did have a disaster preparedness committee. We always talked about having some emergency supplies as a community stored on site, but made sure that the residents would not know the extent of such supplies. It was the individual units that should have had an emergency kit in each of their own units. Of course the number of residents ready for an emergency were a very slim number.
The reason for our emergency readiness there was because we live in CA. We have EQ's here, we have fires here, and who knows what else mother nature might throw our way someday?
It would be great to know what neighbors you could count on if the economy fails, or something else happens. But I think you need to choose those you could trust, and would feel comfortable sharing your preps with?
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:o
A new topic is up to Wrightwood (the forum owner, not the town). Meanwhile I'll keep preparing for the zombie apocalypse.
I know, I know, I'm going. 8)
I'd love John's input on this since this is his forum..... but any trivial search on the internet would suggest we are a bug ready to hit the windshield economey
So what specifically should we do as a community....
and this is the hardest question...
Should we turn away our unprepared neighbors that need food and water to the extent that it makes the preppers finally unable to survive... or should we advocate now that besides earthquake, and fire, we have uncertain political consequences that we have to deal with.... and we should as a community be preparing for... test question... buy more CERT water barrellels or less.... a gun or not...
\
and when the ,,,,,, yoy know what hits the fan.... can you exist for 3-6 months...
As a community, we need to think about setting such boundries....
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I really wouldn't worry about it. . . and if worse came to worst, it would not happen overnight, unlike a natural disaster. . . which one should really worry about and prepare for. We'd turn into a barter economy. Look at how people survived in the Great Depression. My family grew their own food (in the Black Hills of SD, no less), foraged, canned, some poached, ate squirrels and rabbits, etc. Took in boarders, worked what few jobs there were. And everyone bartered.
Its human nature to land on your feet and make community work when faced with stressful times. If this were not so, there would not be a human race. And how is it people manage to live in the Third World in ways we cannot wrap our minds around, and yet they don't sneak into their neighbor's cardboard shack and cut their throat for their piece of bread?
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These people appear to be prepared.
(http://tucsoncitizen.com/hispanic-politico/files/2012/10/tin-foil-hat.jpg)
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I really wouldn't worry about it. . . and if worse came to worst, it would not happen overnight, unlike a natural disaster. . . which one should really worry about and prepare for. We'd turn into a barter economy. Look at how people survived in the Great Depression. My family grew their own food (in the Black Hills of SD, no less), foraged, canned, some poached, ate squirrels and rabbits, etc. Took in boarders, worked what few jobs there were. And everyone bartered.
Its human nature to land on your feet and make community work when faced with stressful times. If this were not so, there would not be a human race. And how is it people manage to live in the Third World in ways we cannot wrap our minds around, and yet they don't sneak into their neighbor's cardboard shack and cut their throat for their piece of bread?
Worry about it? No, but consider the possibility yes.
We all know that there is a possibility of a large earthquake impacting our region. Most of us (I hope) prepare for this by stocking extra food and water etc. Some get CERT training and some even go a bit further and create plans for the possibility. Some people ignore the facts and live in a world where earthquakes don't happen to them.
Looking at the current conditions, and things that are happening in the world and any sane person can see that there is a greater than zero chance that something bad could happen. The possibilities are many, most are not likely, but some are definitely possible.
Just as in the case of the earthquake we all know is possible, some prepare, some plan and others live in a world where bad things don't happen to them... until they do.
It seems to me that all of the awareness in our community about earthquakes and the preparations many have done for that eventuality would stand us in good stead. But thinking about other possibilities, even if they are uncomfortable is probably important as long as it doesn't get out of hand.
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Nolena - can you please refrain from posting your family pictures! ;)
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Ok Raven.. had to laugh at that one. On the more serious side, its not a bad issue to be discussing. I suppose it could be moved to "Just For Fun".. but that doesn't seem like a good fit to me. Perhaps to "In the News." That way it won't have the connotation of a 'disaster.' A rose by any other name...
My first question is: Has anyone read an instructive article as to what to expect if the debt ceiling isn't raised? What are the initial impacts of that and what are the long term impacts of that on both the national and local level. If you have, please post a link here or wherever it may be moved to on the Forum.
I know for myself, I've investigated a water tank for here should an earthquake interrupt water service. But, then I decided if I can get a water truck in.. I can get the horses out. And, that made more sense to me. As for cat sand (something I never want to run short on).. I'll use dirt. As for TP, I'll use letters from old boyfriends. I'm stocked up on food.. course if I get down to the sardines that Mom loved.. I will not be happy.
So, I don't think Mojave is necessarily being "Chicken Little" here. I, for one, will be devastated if Jensen's runs out of chow mein. They don't carry it at Staters.
The debt ceiling will have national impacts if it isn't raised. Oddly, I think it will be raised.. along with a lot of bartering and 'doomsday' scenarios leading up to a vote. And, I really do wish we weren't in a position as a country to have to consider it again. It does make sense to me to have a rational discussion of local implications if it isn't raised. We have a new congressional representative here. I'm not raising a political flag here.. I am saying that we can voice our own concerns to that new representative to guide his vote.
So, MojaveSidecar... why do you think there will be a run on local stores if the debt ceiling isn't raised? And, I appreciate the fact that you prefaced your question by stating you didn't want to get into a debate as to how we got here. Cheryl o7o
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I am in total agreement to seeing this subject brought up and kept alive. YES, we need to prepare, Yes we need to have food and water stored! We haven't seen the worst of our economy. I feel we need to prepare for this economic colapse. So much to explore here, and thank you MojaveSideCar for bringing this up. Guaranteed, this thread will help all of us in our little town if we are prepared. The day could come when we will have no other means but to rely on each other, barter, grow, sow, etc... the list is endless.
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FEMA camps and "government come for our guns..." -- good grief. :)
There are enough legitimate things to worry about in our economic climate without paranoid delusions and NRA/Weapons manufacturing propaganda being added to the list of things to worry about. Serious problems require serious solutions, adding FOX "News" lunacy does not help matters.
Wrightwood is within perhaps 90 driving minutes of some 22.4 million people, a great many who actually believe that if there is another economic upheaval in excess of what we had through 2001 and 2009, they will head to the mountains and "live off the land" with their 40 million handguns and rifles.
Beyond basic Earthquake preparedness that every Californian should have, the storage of food and water for mitigation against economic and civil unrest is pointless in the face of a heavily armed populace that can be expected to flood in and take everything you have, killing whoever has it along the way.
Wrightwood is not unique. Every mountain and desert community has the same problem. In the face of a civil or national emergency, all such communities will be overrun with heavily armed people, the majority of them boasting IQs right up there in the mid 80s, every one of which are motivated to take what people have.
Crystal Lake has the same problem, there is potable drinking water at Crystal Lake in the San Gabriel Watershed, and if civil or national unrest were to take place, any point where drinking water is to be found can be expected to be overrun, the game in the mountains (from bears all the way down to snakes) exterminated and eaten within one week.
My point is that every citizen should be storing gasoline, water, food, batteries and such in a standard Earthquake or Fire kit, enough to get through 30 days or so of civic services being cut off, enough to afford citizens to gather together and plan in the aftermath. The idea that one can plan and mitigate a civil or national upheaval is delusional not to mention paranoid.
I will add that we already have adverse impact from the current Great Recession, we see more and more people squatting in the Angeles National Forest already, many of them living along the East Fork of the San Gabriel River. The pollution from human waste ending up in the river (and thus our drinking water) is truly horrific to the point where there has been periodic cleaning-out of the homeless squatters and illegal miners about twice a year which has managed to bring our water quality back to human consumption levels.
I'll have to read the other comments. :) But since I work in the cargo locomotive transportation infrastructure industry and have done extensive work with potable water catchment and distribution, sewage, electricity, intercoastal waterway transportation, and telecommunications, much of my annual training covers incident damage and aftermath damage, vandalism and terrorism disruptions of infrastructure, disease control, a broad spectrum of training to ensure myself and my colleagues keep things going in the face of adverse effects, my informed opinion is that there is little you can do to ensure your survival in the face of the levels of upheaval that the OP is worried about.
My opinions only, as always, and only my opinions.
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CrystalLake, Lots of good points; but how would 20 million get to Wrightwood? The freeways would be jammed! And Wrightwood has very little fresh water . . .
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Depending on whom you believe, police who protect Social Security Administration officers are either preparing for impending financial doom by purchasing lethal ammo to put down rioting citizens, or they're just making a standard purchase of ammunition for a federal police agency.
It all began last month when the agency, which is primarily responsible for distributing benefits to the disabled and retired people, posted an announcement seeking bids for 174,000 hollow-point bullets.
Each bullet potentially "represents a dead American," wrote retired Maj. Gen. Jerry Curry, an Army vet.
http://www.cnn.com/2012/09/04/us/social-security-bullets/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2012/09/04/us/social-security-bullets/index.html)
http://www.snopes.com/politics/guns/ssabullets.asp (http://www.snopes.com/politics/guns/ssabullets.asp) <--- this is for John :P
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Thanks folks! I am so pleased to see intelligent response on this subject because we do have a lot of intelligent neighbors. Views and opinions are a valuable resource! I think we should consider everything and keep an open mind!
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Just a note here... as we prepare ourselves for an undefined disaster.. it might be a good idea to understand exactly what to expect. You know, worst case, best case. Those relying on government benefit programs will be cut off or see their benefits cut? Emergency services will be cut? School programs will be cut? What? Just a thought here. cheryl o7o
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Each bullet potentially "represents a dead American," wrote retired Maj. Gen. Jerry Curry, an Army vet.
http://www.snopes.com/politics/guns/ssabullets.asp (http://www.snopes.com/politics/guns/ssabullets.asp) <--- this is for John :P
Evidently the good Maj. Gen. did not require his personnel to practice on the range.... And yes, you need more than six rounds to practice and yes, you need the same exact rounds in practice as you use in the field.
From Snopes:
"Origins: An August 2012 Infowars.com post pointed to a Request for Quote (RFQ) issued by the Social Security Administration (SSA) for the purchase of 174,000 rounds of ".357 Sig 125 grain bonded jacketed hollow point pistol ammunition." The article opined that as the ammunition was to be sent to a number of major cities around the U.S., it was "not outlandish to suggest that the Social Security Administration is purchasing the bullets as part of preparations for civil unrest."
In fact, the spreadsheet showing the destination locations of the ammunition to be purchased by the SSA indicated that it was for "duty carry" purposes and was being procured for Field Division locations of the Office of Investigations (OI), part of the SSA's Office of the Inspector General (OIG). The OI "conducts and coordinates investigative activity related to fraud, waste, abuse, and mismanagement in Social Security Administration programs and operations" and "conducts joint investigations with other Federal, State and local law enforcement agencies."
The OIG's Office of External Relations posted a notice explaining that the reason behind the ammunition procurement was to supply the nearly 300 special agents who work for the OIG and are armed while on duty:
Our office has criminal investigators, or special agents, who are responsible for investigating violations of the laws that govern SSA's programs. Currently, about 295 special agents and supervisory special agents work in 66 offices across the United States. These investigators have full law enforcement authority, including executing search warrants and making arrests.
Our investigators are similar to your State or local police officers. They use traditional investigative techniques, and they are armed when on official duty.
Media reports expressed concerns over the type of ammunition ordered. In fact, this type of ammunition is standard issue for many law enforcement agencies. OIG's special agents use this ammunition during their mandatory quarterly firearms qualifications and other training sessions, to ensure agent and public safety. Additionally, the ammunition our agents use is the same type used at the Federal Law Enforcement Training Center.
Our special agents need to be armed and trained appropriately. They not only investigate allegations of Social Security fraud, but they also are called to respond to threats against Social Security offices, employees, and customers.
A similar invitation for bids to supply 46,000 rounds of hollow point bullets along with 500 paper targets was issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). That ammunition is destined for the NOAA's National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), which is tasked with protecting fish stocks from depletion, marine mammals from extinction, the livelihoods of commercial fishers, the hobbies of recreational fishers, and the health of seafood consumers." NOAA spokesman Scott Smullen stated that the ammunition is "standard issue for many law enforcement agencies, and it will be used by 63 NOAA enforcement agents in their twice annual target qualifications and training."
Last updated: 16 August 2012 "
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And, a cheery note here... if you google "debt ceiling 2013" you will see the stories just now being posted about the House voting today for a bill that will extend this crisis for a few more months. Lots of analysis coming our way shortly. I'm going to bet that not one of them will tell us whether there will be a run on Jenson's. But, it is looking like we have a few more months to toss this one around.
The phrase "total paralysis of the federal government" did jump out at me.. should the debt ceiling not be raised in March. This, I imagine, is as opposed to what many have felt was major paralysis of our government in recent years. Yet, stuff gets done. All to the good.
I do remember my Grandma telling me about how the neighbors chipped in during the depression to pay a neighbor to shovel the snow on their sidewalks because he had lost his job. And, about the Victory Gardens.. and the rationing during WW2. I'm guessing that is why I actually still have rubber bands that she saved and some soap and towels from back then. Mom was the same way.. she never threw away a paper bag. So, you learn to conserve.. in good times or bad.. you conserve.. because your bad times may have nothing to do with an earthquake or a flood.. or the debt ceiling.
But, hey.. it seems like we may have a few months to beat this horse.. so, let the debate continue. cheryl o7o
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Seems to me that the "economic collapse" wouldn't be due to not extending the debt limit. Rather such an event (example Greece) would be due to continuing to raise the debt obligations of our country to the point that it would be difficult to pay back. At that point, (we may be there) fewer investors would want to buy our debt.
If investors don't want to buy our debt, we would either have to raise the interest rate we offered to pay, which would impact the costs of doing business, future mortgage rates, credit card rates etc. or we would have to work some accounting magic.
Currently the Federal reserve is buying most of the debt of the US. This keeps interest rates low but has potential inflationary impact down the road.
If this continues, either interest rates skyrocket, or we experience very significant inflation.
It is one of these scenarios that seems most likely to bring about an economic collapse. At least that is how it seems to me.
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I've been hearing bits about an economic collapse in our future and to expect a "bank holiday" if and when that happens. You won't be able to get any of your money out of a bank or even use the ATM machine.
This is the latest I've seen just yesterday:
http://www.naturalnews.com/038782_self-sufficiency_collapse_preparedness.html
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Well first and foremost.. Lagomorph should not read that link. Raising rabbits for food.. would not be something she wants to read.
That link does have some great 'survival' tips. If you want to go there .. go there. If it makes you feel better.. good. I actually do a number of them for my earthquake prep. The tips have nothing to do with what may or may not happen if the debt isn't raised. The tips are survivalist tips. And, they're great tips if you want to go there.
I guess we should back up a bit and decide what the difference is between "a fiscal cliff' and "a debt ceiling crisis." Oh, technically likely nothing. Sort of seems to me that they're great terms for media bites.. but the impact could be the same. You say pahtuhto,, I say potaaato.. you say cliff.. I say ceiling.. etc.
As for a bank holiday.. I do recall my Grandma telling me that the day before the collapse in 1929 her brother called her and told her to take all of her money out of the bank. I think he was either a banker or CPA in NYC. Anyway, she did. I guess he had some 411. Grandma was happy that she did that.
And, the banks all closed as did everything in this country after 9/11. Then they opened again. So, once again I ask: what will the impact truly be? Once we know that we can discuss what to do and how to help our most vulnerable community members and ourselves.
So, if anyone wants to stock up a little on the chow mein at Jensen's for me.. will barter if push comes to shove. cheryl o7o
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Hi Cheryl
This was the first video I stumbled upon that woke me up to the economic issues/consequences we are now facing.
http://w3.newsmax.com/a/aftershockb/video47.cfm?promo_code=F847-1 (http://w3.newsmax.com/a/aftershockb/video47.cfm?promo_code=F847-1)
I wound up buying this newsletter as well as newsletters and books from a variety of other economists and am still up to my ears wading my way through the material.
Some of the bigger discrepancies I see are between the Keynesian economists who believe the government should stimulate our way out of our problems versus the Austrian economists who believe in letting the free market economy and the ebb and flow of bubbles resolve our problems.
The other big debate is if we will have inflation or deflation... retreating salaries and property values are deflationary but rising food and energy prices are inflationary. And to add to the confusion I have run into one set of economists who says we should sell gold because it has peeked and will go down in a deflation and another set who says we should buy gold because it will skyrocket because it's a hedge against inflation.
My goal over time is to put the info I am learning from all these points of view into my computer. I plan to track the various predictions to see if there is a clear trend/winner here.
In any case, what happens to all the folks who may be losing their jobs and eventually cannot pay their rents or mortgages.... where do they go? In the past it has been to go on welfare, but what happens to these folks if welfare goes broke. From what I read recently, most of the stimulus money went to the states who used it just to maintain the states' financial status quo, Given the debt crises, future state bailouts from the Fed may not be available. If foreign investors stop buying our federal debt, and fed borrowing drys up, the only option left to the feds is the printing press... which will just make things even worse. So hence the trend towards the next great depression.
A big difference between the 30's depression and the coming one is farms... Farmers could mostly support themselves if required, I'm not so sure that is the case this time around, given we have much less agriculture.
The other issue is the scope of the problem... unlike a local issue like Katrina or Sandy, this will hit the whole country simultaneously. In such a case, where would FEMA deploy its resources if a large percent of the population became homeless and hungry? They most likely would not be able to come to us, we would have to go to them. Hence the emerging rumors of FEMA trains and FEMA camps.
I admit I still have a lot to educate myself about economics to try and get a handle on this stuff, However, all of the economists I've read seem to have one opinion in common... things are going to get much worse before they get better... and that's what is worrying me.
Time to crack open the next economics book...
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Mojave,
That video was fascinating. Unfortunately I wasn't able to watch it in its entirety. How long is it? I'll plan the time to so. I now want to read his book.
And, I plan to send it to my son. He's already been dinged by Prop 30 which was retroactive. I just don't believe in retroactive taxes like 30 and the fire fee. How do you plan for that?
At any rate, thanks for bringing this discussion back to where its focus should be. Which, in my opinion, is what is the worst case scenario here and what should we plan for if it happens? I've read enough actuary reports to know.. they don't always get it right. I'd also like to see some reviews or articles on the book for different opinions.
In closing for now, I loved the pic of the cat with the tin foil hat. cheryl o7o
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O.K., so I watched just a few seconds of the video and I had all kinds of "yellow flags" going off in my head . . . did a Google search and found this article:
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/09/02/aftershock-finding-fortune-in-marketing-doom/
"Want to make money in this market? Just predict the market is just going to get much, much worse. At least that's the very profitable tack the writers of a doom-and-gloom tome, Aftershock: Protect Yourself and Profit in the Next Global Financial Meltdown are taking . . . "
"All of this background doesn't mean the Wiedemers might not be correct that we're racing toward a financial catastrophe. . . it's really more correctly proof of the power of marketing."
I would say prepare anyway . . .
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Pretty amazing just how we get our "education".
I prefer to read a bit more main stream stuff on the economy....this just in from the NYTimes http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/26/business/daily-stock-market-activity.html?emc=na&_r=0 (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/26/business/daily-stock-market-activity.html?emc=na&_r=0) Paints a little bit different picture then the infomercial for the doom and gloom book.
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Thanks for posting these. Both pieces are interesting and informative. Now, about my chow mein at Jensen's? cheryl o7o
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:) I kind of like the idea of 22.4 million Southern Californiqa citizens cramming the freeways trying to get to Wrightwood. :)
Thing is, all it would take to screw up Wrightwood's citizenship and civic infrastructure would be a couple of hundred highly motivated individuals with serious weapons who walk up bypassing the barricades, come the Zompocalype :) I don't believe there is a significant ability for township defense without a National Guard component dispatched to protect -- and administer -- whatever potable drinking water Wrightwood has.
This whole economic mess, in my opinion, started with Richard Nixon with the abolishment of utilizing gold as a standard for script. Nixon's administration worked with OPEC and most notably with Saudi Arabia and Iraq, ensuring that all of the oil producing nations sell their oil in U.S. Dollars, thus inflating the Dollar and allowing the Federal Reserve -- a private commercial corporation -- to print as much script as they wished.
What happened was the establishment of the petro-Dollar as world currency which flows along the same avenues as cocaine, heroin, and some other contraband commodities. With Saddam Hessien a U.S. puppet following orders, with Saudi Arabia having ownership in considerable land property in the U.S., with Afghanistan being subdued by the Soviets, the petro-Dollar worked.
Then OPEC nations started divesting themselves of the U.S. Dollar. Saddam in Iraq stopped selling oil for U.S. Dollars which was the #1 reason why the Bush regime launched their war crime atrocities against the people of Iraq and eventually got past the Republican Guard, dismantled the infrastructure, and toppeled their own errant puppet dictator, installed a new puppet that restored the selling of oil for U.S. Dollars, only to find other oil producing countries are dropping the Dollar in defiance of the object lesson of Iraq.
Further weakening the petro-Dollar is the advent of non-petrolium energy sources which are emergent, the looting of the U.S. Treasury which conceivably has no gold left in any of the 3 supposed gold vaults tax payers are informed still exist (despite the refusal of the Bush/Obama regime to allow third-party audits) and the looming need to re-issue U.S. currency.
Which ain't gonna happen. :) We're doomed. DOOMED! Best thing is to buy avocados, enjoy life while we've got it, and when the Zompocalypse arrives, die with much anger.
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Then OPEC nations started divesting themselves of the U.S. Dollar. Saddam in Iraq stopped selling oil for U.S. Dollars which was the #1 reason why the Bush regime launched their war crime atrocities against the people of Iraq and eventually got past the Republican Guard, dismantled the infrastructure, and toppeled their own errant puppet dictator, installed a new puppet that restored the selling of oil for U.S. Dollars, only to find other oil producing countries are dropping the Dollar in defiance of the object lesson of Iraq.
Wow, it's always shocking to me to come across someone who actually gets it.
USA's Petro Dollar Threatened by Gaddafi's Gold-for-Oil Plan
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wha9lTKN7Zg
General Wesley Clark Wars Were Planned - Seven Countries In Five Years
"Ten days after 9/11 ... we're going to take out Iraq, and then Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and then finishing off, Iran."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oXS7IsOdu-A
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Sheesh,, some of you guys just make me think and want to read more. If for no other reason, than to have a credible argument. So, there have been two presidents (FDR and Truman) that have inspected our gold reserves. I guess Ft. Knox has also held various historical documents ..like the Magna Carta, etc.. and no doubt.. Obama's birth certificate (that may also be held at the Federal Reserve another depository). Evidently, it does take a Presidential Order to inspect the various sites. The fact that the Presidents since Truman haven't done so.. does not make me believe it isn't still there. Sorry, that argument doesn't hold for me. But, I'm open to discussion.
I cannot argue on point regarding the 'petro-dollar' vs the 'gold standard.' That is just a disclaimer.
I also just have to say here that I don't buy into the theory about 'seven countries.. " in the M.E. that we're going to topple (ala the Clark interview). Is it sort of like the "domino theory' in reverse or something? Those countries have been on the trigger-point of imploding forever. Do I think that our intelligence agencies have not been involved .. well, golly, no I do not think that. I also think you can't light a fire without tinder. Would our country have been foolish to ignore what was happening across the M.E. and Africa? Well, I think we would have been foolish.Should we have played a role in supporting those that support our interests? Well, sure until history shows what idiots we were to support who we did.. as well as how many American lives and dollars were lost to do so. I do think WW2 is a whole different debate.
It hasn't just been in the M.E. that we put in or supported a "puppet" .. oh, a puppet that wound up pulling our strings.. look at Central America, look at Viet Nam.
So, back to the point: (you guys are really good at tangents,, you just suck me right in). Are we facing economic doom in the next few years? Man, I hope not. But, lettuce say we are for the sake of discussion. What should we as individuals and a community do to insulate ourselves from that or just your everyday, run of the mill.. major earthquake? cheryl o7o
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Hi Cheryl
Speaking of reading about all this stuff.... I guess I have gone crazy with researching in to this economic stuff.. and I hate economics... but what I am finding is fascinating. (and I make absolutely no claim to being knowledgeable about this stuff. Its just my gut feeling that "something" is wrong" that is compelling me to do this). And what I am finding is scaring the you, know, what out of me.
There is so much out there, it is difficult to come to a conclusion yet.... and I have subscribed to a ton of financial/economic newsletters etc. with the hope that it would enlighten me... but in general ... the various opinions are like....... everybody has one.
However... patterns are emerging.... and they seem to suggest....
Another crash/depression is eminent.
The cause is excessive "credit" expansion.... and we have the same "situation" with credit as Japan had in the 1990s.
There is a "huge" debate about if this crash will be inflationary or deflationary... but the scope of the crash will match or exceed the depression of the 30s.
We havent had a deflationary event since the 30's...
Most traditional economists believe that a deflationary event can be "managed" by the fed... and backing up the fed would be the IMF.
Other economists believe that the fed/current federal leadership is "incompetent" and should receive a vote of "no confidence"
So OK... the vast majority of the financial pundits I have subscribed to all agree that a significant major depression is eminent.... on the scale of the 1930s depression. But they are divided as to if it will be an inflationary or deflationary event. And the problem is... how to prepare for this event is completely different if it is inflationary or deflationary
We can get into this inflationary/deflationary debate in future posts...
In summary... we need to rethink this thread... since it has exposed two concepts... the first is... are we going to have an significant economic crash?
And the second question is: Given a significant economic crash, how/what should Wrightwood do as a community to prepare/defend against such an event?
I'm sure that there will be future discussion about this topic but I want to detour into something I stumbled upon in my research.
I just read a book, "The Law" by Fredrick Bastiat and it floored me... because it provides a view into the workings of what/why we seem to be so dysfunctional as a nation/economy today. If everybody read this book, it would be easy to have a basis to talk about what we are experiencing as a society today...
I paid Liassez Fare book club to get this book.... and I was blown away by it in terms of the clarity it prides into todays political/social/economic dis-function. But just tonight, I found a free online version at the following link. It should be "required" reading for every school kid, but that would violate the law of liberty. (it will take an hour or 2 to read... but if you care about this subject matter... it is worth it. However the "heart" of the content is presented in the first half of the book)
Do you feel plundered? ;)
http://www.constitution.org/cmt/bastiat/the_law.html (http://www.constitution.org/cmt/bastiat/the_law.html)
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Come on now people. I've got bigger and heavier things to worry about!
Like, is Beyonce going to lip sync at the Super Bowl this Sunday or not ??? ;D
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PacFan: You missed Beyonce's news conference yesterday. She's not going to lip sync. And, you know she can't because the entire media covering the game is going to be on her like a tick on a dead dog in the sun. There just ain't nowhere to go. I hope she nails it. It is a very hard song to sing and many cannot sing it. I guess it is too late to change the National Anthem now. And, I like it.. tho, I really cannot hit those notes. So, I try not to be too loud at ballgames.
Mojave: How about a few cliff notes on the book to get us off to a start? I get a crick in my neck if I read long pieces online. And, I still have a crick from reading Tim's LeBon piece he posted on the energy thread.
(Sidenote to posting links: How about those of us that post them also provide an overview as to why we're posting them? Just a thought.)
(Sidenote to the sidenote: Example.. it is not enough to say you thought it was instructive.. I would love to know why you thought that.)
Mojave: "Do I feel plundered"? Yes, I feel plundered when I pay bills. .. in particular .. bills from Verizon. cheryl o7o
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High Level Abstract of "The Law"
Law is just and good only so long as it operates from the natural rights of the governed and in the interests of the governed.
Law is perverted when it operates from man's desire to extract from someone the benefits of their labor to use themselves or give to others to use.
Socialism is bad.
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Thanks InTheWood... You actually gave me a good laugh with your 'High Level Abstract.' Now, before we deteriorate into a discussion about the evils of socialism.. let us stay on course here.
The posit is that there will be an economic crash in our country .. many economists agree that will happen (evidently).. they just don't know yet if it will be inflationary or deflationary. Frankly that sounds to me like they're all over the map,, but ok. Since we're having a 'what if' discussion as to how to prepare for this and we're having it in the "Disaster Prep" thread we should focus our discussion on what to expect if either scenario plays out.
We could talk about how we as small Tri-Community could impact the policies in D.C. and the merits (or lack thereof) of the Fed or the IMF. I so don't want to go there.
What could the impacts be if a "conjectured crash" occurs? If it is inflationary we pay more for less. If it is deflationary we get less for more. Someone should explain the difference to me. And, there is always that pesky 'civil unrest' issue lurking. And, of course, there is always the question as to how long it will last so we can adequately plan for it.
But, since few seem to agree as to which direction it will take.. I can't see how they're going to predict the duration.
I guess we look at our own personal financial situation and think through for ourselves what makes the most sense for each of us as individuals. If you're on a fixed income, you may feel more pinched than you do already. If you rely on investments, you may see their worth drop. Course, we've kind of just gone through that. I guess the prognosis is that what we've just been through is a 'nothing burger.' If you rely on government programs such as welfare, etc., those could be cut. So, you look around and decide what you can do without. And, we all could likely do without a lot of what we think is important.
Back to civil unrest for a moment here. I don't believe that the Tri-Community would be subject to riots. Crime might go up. Course, crime has already gone up here. I'm going to make the sweeping guess that crime is mostly drug related, as in those that steal are stealing for money for drugs. Perhaps they steal to feed their children.. nahh I don't buy that.
So, I posit here that the major impact on us, aside from our own personal limitations, will be shortages. So, why don't we talk about how to plan for that? cheryl o7o
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I always like to find a bit of humor where I can.
You know, rather than drilling down into the details of what causes a crash, it might be beneficial to "abstract" the crash scenario and think more about what the large-scale ramifications of a crash would be and how those could be dealt with given Wrightwood's location and geography.
It seems to me that the high level abstract of a crash scenario includes a major variable, and that is speed. In many crash scenarios the change happens overnight. For example a catastrophic economic crash, total devaluation of currency such that commerce ends save for barter. Or if you like to lean more towards the science fiction/speculative fiction side of things, a major Solar Flare or EMP causes massive disruption of the grid etc. Of course there is always the big one.
In these scenarios the disruption is rapid and you would have about three days or so before the food supplies in the cities would get thin. I think it was some Roman guy who noted that any city is three missed meals away from anarchy. In such scenarios you would need to act quickly to preserve the community.
1. Limit access points to reduce incoming refugees, probably have to guard the choke points.
2. Inventory empty cabins and consolidate supplies to prevent looting of empties. It seems anyone who owns property in Wrightwood would be welcomed back in and we don't want them coming home to an empty or trashed home. When they get back, the stuff they had could be returned to them. Failing that, post neighborhood watch guards 24 x 7 to prevent looting.
3. Post guards at the grocery story to prevent riot. I suspect Jensens would sell out in 4 hours. Anything left after the store is declared no longer functioning by management would be consolidated and inventoried. Jensens gets paid for everything after the crisis if possible.
4. Form neighborhood watches.
In a slow crash, like a depression, where supplies still move into the city and the water and sewage systems remain functional it is likely that the influx of refugees would be slow at first. It would be harder to recognize the point at which you change over from things as usual, manage the slide to an emergency that threatened the survival of the community.
I'm just speculating, and I remain optimistic. I think the slow crash is the most likely, if anything like this happens.
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Thanks InTheWood... You actually gave me a good laugh with your 'High Level Abstract.' Now, before we deteriorate into a discussion about the evils of socialism.. let us stay on course here.
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So, I posit here that the major impact on us, aside from our own personal limitations, will be shortages. So, why don't we talk about how to plan for that? cheryl o7o
Still reading a lot like crazy... but...
Excellent summary of "The Law" by IntheWood. That book gives myriad examples of the misuse of the Law by government and its consequences and just about every perverse example of malpractice is in play by our current US government.
Every government that has misused "the law" in the manner described in the book has collapsed because it converts free men into government "tax-slaves". A 67% plunder rate on Phil Michaelson for example is obscene, immoral and incentive killing and eventually government killing as described in detail in the book. One of the next things that I want to study in history is the lifecycle of how a socialistic regime lives and dies. Usually the dying part is not pretty. i.e starvation, homelessness, riots, runs on supper markets and pharmacies, relocation camps, etc.
The following "State of the Union" is one that you wont see in the popular press is here, but provides an update view of the decay of the law in the usa today.
http://www.caseyresearch.com/cdd/what-we-now-know (http://www.caseyresearch.com/cdd/what-we-now-know)
So given the growing dis-incentives of work because of the increasing "plunder" levels and the huge credit bubble overdue for a burst, my feeling is that an economic crash is eminent.
SO... to your point. Regardless of the type of crash.. there will be shortages... which will last much longer than an earthquake or a forest fire event, because the scope of the event will be nationwide, if not worldwide. There is not enough FEMA supplies to go around.
So one would think that the the storage of a 90 day or so supply of food would be good. However, one of the kinks here, is that our "kommander in chief" has signed some executive order that says in case of an emergency, he was the right to commander an individuals "resources" for the good of the people. Which means anything you have prepped to prepare for this event can be confiscated. (I'll provide a better reference about this later but I'm running out of time at the moment)
This would be a good place to start discussing how as a community we should respond. Should one stock up on "heavy artillery" and be prepared to use it against the new gvmt brown shirts raiding an individual's resources... or submit to the confiscation and starve to death.
Is pooling all resources of the community... in a "gvnmt approved" CERT type of storage system a better solution? Then who controls that resource and how do we keep from falling in yet another "trap" "the Law" describes.
For community wide defense, should WW provide a "militia" of its citizens to guard the super-market, gas station, restaurants, or step up road blocks to prevent "obvious" intruders into neighborhoods where they would have no reason to be in a crises.
Got to run now.... but after writing this so far, it looks like we need more input into that "executive" order and what its impact would be on WW in case of martial law.
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Well, first and foremost .. I want the chow mein stuff from Jensen's and I want those crunchy noodles to go with it. I'm just going on the record here again.
Next: do we need a militia? Oddly I do not think we do. I do not think that roads should be blocked (in particular if a truck is carrying chow mein to Jensen's). Oh, have you guys thought about passes for those of us in P.H. and Phelan.. or will we become the enemy? I'm still thinking chow mein here.. Stater doesn't carry it. So, I'm planning in advance of the crash.
I personally do not think we need guns.. and I sort of think there are enough folks around here that do have guns that it won't be a problem. Course it could be a problem if they panic and don't really have a good aim.
So, I share a couple of stories from my family life for a laugh or two. The day before Prohibition started my great aunt had a liquor store truck deliver an entire load of liquor to the house in NY.. Sheesh, there was still some of it down in the wine cellar when I was a kid in the 50s. Then, because the family also owned a house in Canada and could buy booze there.. my great aunt and my grandmother would smuggle bottles of booze back across the border to NY in their corsets. Now, that is my idea of planning in advance of a shortage. Not to mention the barter possibilities.
My main message here is to just relax .. relax. Plan as you always do for your own personal security and finances. (Don't forget my chow mein).
We are all going to be just fine.. whatever storm comes our way. cheryl o7o
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Oh, have you guys thought about passes for those of us in P.H. and Phelan.. or will we become the enemy?
LOL.....for the passes......should we take applications or just proof of residency?
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I think we should divide into two operational forces -- brown eyed and blue eyed. Brown eyes will take to the trees, in massive flame-retardant wooden topiary fortifications. We can use the zip lines from Navitat for crucial regions of tree-top transportation, and hand-weave trapeze lines from the cattails at Jackson Lake. The top of each Jeffrey pine can become a true snipers nest, with the brown-eyed riflemen gaining sustenance from the pine nut centers of juvenile cones, and also by roasting bark beetles.
Blue eyed men and women will take to the tunnels, constructing an elaborate maze of seemingly abandoned silver mines, which will be the only means of travel in and out of town, past the nuclear-enriched landmines our nimble-fingered children will build using pilfered parts from JPL. Identification won't be necessary, because only native Wrightwoodians will be able to navigate the intricate subterranean labyrinth.
Jenson's, bare shelves long since stripped of all supplies, will become a glass-roofed Thunderdome, where any flatlanders somehow simultaneously foolish enough to attempt entry yet smart enough to slip through our defenses will fight to the death for our amusement, and a chance to star in our annual rendition of The Grinch, beamed to the outer world via satellite subscription, which will help our forces pay for the petroleum we'll need to power our iron-clad Subarus.
Green eyed Wrightwoodians will be responsible for walking the dogs.
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Or we could just help each other through difficult times, like communities have always done throughout human history. Either/or.
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Sorry, I had too much fun with that. I actually think gathering anything useful or edible from empty houses is a good idea. Also very important is water. How do we get water from the wells without electricity? There are big reservoirs up the Blue Ridge, I know; always assumed that was our source, but it would definitely be nice to have people around who know about the systems.
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Just watch out for these guys during the apocalypse.
(http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Dztli5ohtJs/UJPKDMBJ5BI/AAAAAAAAbV0/7BiCmux92cU/s1600/zombies.jpg)
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This thread is starting to sound like a bad movie script. But on the upside, if there is a screenwriter in town, some cable channel will probably buy the script and produce it. Then the money could be used to hire the necessary mercenaries to protect the town.
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Zombie apocalypse!!! Didn't I say it? DIDN'T I say it? ;D And yeah, daf, it's already a bad movie script. I knew this thread was going to devolve.
Mods, will you please consider moving this thread into "Just for Fun?" Disaster awareness should be about earthquake, wildfires and mudflows. This is fantasy.
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I think it's more like Fallout: New Vegas. Just need to release the Wrightwood expansion pack.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l-x-1fm2cq8
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Now "Fallout: Wrightwood" I can get behind! ;)
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I think it's more like Fallout: New Vegas. Just need to release the Wrightwood expansion pack.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l-x-1fm2cq8
Yup... I guess I am wrong.... nothing like this fallout stuff could never happen here..
http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/gunships-over-miami-machine-gun-fire-strafing-runs-troops-rappelling-from-choppers-and-road-blockades_01282013 (http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/gunships-over-miami-machine-gun-fire-strafing-runs-troops-rappelling-from-choppers-and-road-blockades_01282013)
and
http://www.shtfplan.com/marc-faber/pentagon-military-actively-war-gaming-large-scale-economic-breakdown-and-civil-unrest_11222010 (http://www.shtfplan.com/marc-faber/pentagon-military-actively-war-gaming-large-scale-economic-breakdown-and-civil-unrest_11222010)
Who knows if this is true..... just saying... but from what I know of human nature, herd behavior... modeled against what I learned from the book " The Law" and others, added to what I believe is happening to the economy ..... sure .... I guess I'll stick my head in the sand... my fingers in my ears and hummm and wish that all this stuff goes away.... Just like it did in the 30s in Germany, 40 in the USSR, and heck the 50's in China...
And finally this.... who knows if this lady is telling the truth.... this version is on another one of those whacky websites... but its not like she was really there when it happened.
http://www.disclose.tv/news/She_survived_Hitler_and_wants_to_warn_America/87914 (http://www.disclose.tv/news/She_survived_Hitler_and_wants_to_warn_America/87914)
Given what history reports happened in Germany in the 30's, why were some lucky enough to read the tea leaves and took necessary precautions like leaving the country, while others became fertilizer for the Reich, or later for Stalin, or for Pol Pot, or for Mao for for Amin, and on and on.
There is too much "interesting" things happening in this country that smells like very old fish..... and the odor is strong enough that I am for whatever reason that is embedded in my particular DNA, compelled to get to the bottom of it...
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You act as if I don't pay attention to this stuff, too!
But this isn't 1984, it's a Brave New World. The goal of oligarchy is to maintain oligarchy -- and that means making sure that the masses keep popping their happy pills. They're only going to send in the marines to save us from the right wing radical extremist terrorists and their heavily armored compounds so that we don't have to miss any episodes of Dr. Phil. The last thing they want is angry mobs. If worst comes to worst, we'll all be drafted into a staged WWIII before the economy actually collapses, so we can die as heroes. Dulce et Decorum est. Any oligarch worth his salt is a student of history.
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I feel like I popped into a page from Tolstoy.
Couldn't finish Anna Karanina either...
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There is too much "interesting" things happening in this country that smells like very old fish..... and the odor is strong enough that I am for whatever reason that is embedded in my particular DNA, compelled to get to the bottom of it...
I've spent the last 8 years trying to get to the bottom of it. I think I'm mostly there, so if you're ever curious... The closest rabbit hole is probably Prescott Bush and Fritz Thyssen, if you follow.
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Boy, this thread went in some interesting directions...
Tim G, it's Brave New World but there are elements of 1984 as well. The news headlines on Thursday and Friday were how much better 2012 was than we all thought, because when the big 4th quarter is included in the annual figures average monthly job growth was 183K instead of 151K. A newly-invented statistic to conjure a positive headline on a day where unemployment crept slightly upward, new claims for unemployment rose, and the size of the labor force shrank once again...Dept. of Labor press releases increasingly remind me of the Ministry of Truth. But like you said, they have to give us our happy pills.
Economic disaster? My personal opinion is that we are in it already, this is what it looks like, it won't resemble an apocalpyse or a collapse. Earlier in the thread someone mentioned Japan, I believe the Japanese speak of their "lost decade", its an apt analogy.
For me, the question becomes: is seeming recent improvement in the USA economy the beginning of a real expansion? Or is this as good as it's going to get, to be followed by a repeat of 2009?
As I wrote once on a different thread, I am very worried that Fed policy keeps interest rates at virtually zero. The consequence that primarily worries me is that riskier investments are much more enticing than FDIC-guaranteed savings. And since investing nowadays is very complex, I think we are seeing a pattern of small investors chasing what's popular and then getting wiped out when the bubbles burst. Tech stocks, followed by real estate, followed by ???
I suspect the ??? is currently the stock market in general, it is doubtful that the fundamentals of our economy warrant the Dow near an all-time high. I think a lot of money is being put there simply because it has been rising lately and nothing else is growing as fast. I hope I'm wrong, because if that bursts a lot of people are going to get hurt (again!)
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Tim: You had me laughing out loud with that one. Actually, you all did.. and this discussion is a screenplay. I suppose the pitch would be somewhere between "Wall Street" and "Red Dawn." And, I'd love to see Tina Fey adding the comedic elements.
Mojave: You're good here with me anyway. Just keep sharing what you're learning.
I did think we were focusing on "ok, say it does happen?" But, I am enjoying these fanciful rifts on a Sunday morning. So, I think the one thing we have all agreed on is that we will defend Jensen's onto death. We will also provide scout lookouts for trucks delivering to Jenson's. I also suggest that we stock up on balloons. You fill a few of those puppies with a bit of water and the D&G soil in WW and down here..you can take out a windshield of the invaders. Some bows and arrows.. there go their tires.
So, many links .. so little time. I will try to go to all of them. Just two words here: "Chow Mein." best, cheryl o7o
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I guess you can put an order in for any kind of special diet after your crash and relocation. ;)
These kinds of videos are showing up more and more on the web.... and I guess we should believe anything we see on the internet.
OTOH, here again is an example of that old fish oder I am smelling.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NGgtN0bLv5c (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NGgtN0bLv5c)
Bottom Line, A government induced economic crash is coming...... but dont worry..... the government which has caused the problem also has a plan to fix it, and all you have to do is comply.... or die.
BTW, simply Google FEMA [Camp,Bus,Training,Coffin] etc and it is amazing what comes up..
I'd really like to figure out how to prepare to survive the crash from the relative comfort of my home here in WW versus somewhere else of the government's choosing... but it will require the WW community members be forewarned and forearmed and prepared both individuals and as a community. Maybe simply extending CERT's scope to cover the additional contingency of an economic collapse is as best as we can do.
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Mojave.. I hereby offer you sanctuary in P.H. Have full bar.. will trade access for Chow Mein at Jensen's. Conversely, can ride horse up to WW with barter items. Oh, and I guess none of us have thought about the importance of protecting the Blue Ridge or the Yodeler .. have we?
As for the the youtube in your immediate link below: lots of outtakes el zero substance. cheryl o7o
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One must plan for the future and anticipate the future without fearing the future.
- Robin Hobb "The Twenty-Seventh Contradiction of Sa" in Ship of Magic
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So -
It seems to me a good starting point would be to encourage everyone in the area to be CERT-trained. (And then promote every community to be CERT-trained). We are very fortunate to have both great training and a very active dedicated group available to us. It would be good to know your neighbors are prepared and then as an individual you can think through what additional preparation you want to take for any disaster you think you might face.
Also, as a winter resort, we need to consider the people who could be stranded in Wrightwood if a disaster occurred during snowplay time.
Next Basic CERT Training 2013
March 9, 16 and 23 at Serrano High School in Phelan
8 AM to 4:00 PM on Saturdays
Training is free but preregistration is required
by contacting Jean Jones at 760-249-5189, jones.cert@gmail.com
or PO Box 2913, Wrightwood, CA 92397
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I guess one should have 6 month's worth of medication on hand instead of 1. . .
Seek grants to get Wrightwood off the grid completely, with a mix of home solar and solar farms (multiple hwy 2 locations and that patch at the 2/138).
And I still wouldn't worry about it (though if you want to live here after a big quake, long term prep is a god idea).
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/138463/roger-c-altman/the-fall-and-rise-of-the-west?cid=soc-facebook-in-comments-the_fall_and_rise_of_the_west-020413
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So -
It seems to me a good starting point would be to encourage everyone in the area to be CERT-trained. (And then promote every community to be CERT-trained). We are very fortunate to have both great training and a very active dedicated group available to us. It would be good to know your neighbors are prepared and then as an individual you can think through what additional preparation you want to take for any disaster you think you might face.
Also, as a winter resort, we need to consider the people who could be stranded in Wrightwood if a disaster occurred during snowplay time.
Next Basic CERT Training 2013
March 9, 16 and 23 at Serrano High School in Phelan
8 AM to 4:00 PM on Saturdays
Training is free but preregistration is required
by contacting Jean Jones at 760-249-5189, jones.cert@gmail.com
or PO Box 2913, Wrightwood, CA 92397
Great suggestion KathySC..
After considering everything that has been said in this thread.... I believe that the wisest first step for me is to join CERT. I enrolled in the March classes this morning. :2thumbsup:
The second thing would be to bump up the amount of time that one would need to have supplies on hand from a week or 2 to maybe 45 to 60 days.
And the 3rd thing would be to log more "tangible" evidence as/if/when it occurs in the public domain to this thread indicating either things are getting better or things are getting worse, etc
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As part of my continuing efforts to get a handle on what is happening to the economy, I found a good article about Quantitative Easing
http://www.thedailycrux.com/Post/42196/-qe-for-dummies---an-explanation-of-the-fed-s-money-printing-program-anyone-can-understand (http://www.thedailycrux.com/Post/42196/-qe-for-dummies---an-explanation-of-the-fed-s-money-printing-program-anyone-can-understand)
Since the fed can no longer alter the "price" of money to effect monetary policy, the only tool they have left to work with is altering the "quantity" of money.
However... on the same site was a link to this article
http://www.thedailycrux.com/Post/42031/controversial-post--dhs-insider-warns--life-for-the-average-american-is-going-to-change-significantly--this-year (http://www.thedailycrux.com/Post/42031/controversial-post--dhs-insider-warns--life-for-the-average-american-is-going-to-change-significantly--this-year)
which if any of it is true, means we are dealing with something much more significant than just a sour economy.
I found it seriously depressing. (you have to follow a couple of links to get to the interview)
The part about the medical records is true because I do that for a living.
How does one prepare for something like this?
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"RB: People better pay close attention over the next few months. First, there won’t be any meaningful deal about the fiscal crisis. This is planned, I mean, the lack of deal is planned. In fact, it’ necessary to pave the way for what is in the short term agenda."
Said on 12/28, three days before they ... made a deal. This coming from an "insider" who predicted unrest due to massive election fraud last fall. And we're supposed to build a bunker based on his/her predictions now?
People have been saying the dollar will collapse since at least the Nixon Shock. That's 40 years of paranoia -- have a lifetime wasted for anyone caught up in it. In the '80s it was Rex 84 now it's DHS and FEMA camps. Obviously the oligarchs have contingency plans for us, but that's not what they want for us. They want the entire world to be America -- happily passive.
If you read up on Modern Money Theory, the fears of inflation are entirely debunked. China needs heavy dollars to float their economy, the world still needs dollars to buy oil, and we all need dollars to pay our taxes. Our monetary policies are certainly sub-optimal, and mostly designed for the purpose of wealth extraction, but there's no implosion looming. It's a bit of a fiscal Mutually Assured Destruction scenario. It's going to be the status quo for a long time, and the only goal of the elites is to make sure that it happens for as long as possible. Read their memoirs. The status quo means the elite stay elite. That's all they talk about at Builderberg, and the CFR, and the Bohemian Grove, and all the other fancy places where the rulers of the world get to run around naked.
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Hi Tim
I'm not sure the fiscal cliff deal was completely done.... the only thing that was accomplished was a tax hike. They kicked the spending cut side of the coin/can down the road again to March 1, I believe.
Everything I am reading says that inflation is and will be a problem. Example ...
http://www.billbonnersdiary.com/articles/bonner-american-inflation.html (http://www.billbonnersdiary.com/articles/bonner-american-inflation.html)
I still have a lot to learn however before I would place any bets on our economic future.
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On the topic of preparedness, here is a little motivator for getting prepared..... it describes what can happen to you and your family if you're not prepared and something serious happens.
http://www.shtfplan.com/emergency-preparedness/how-horrific-will-it-be-for-the-non-prepper_05122012 (http://www.shtfplan.com/emergency-preparedness/how-horrific-will-it-be-for-the-non-prepper_05122012)
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Just read this, and it is kinda interesting.
http://investmentwatchblog.com/do-wall-street-insiders-expect-something-really-big-to-happen-very-soon/#2yPY68Ri5LYcpker.99 (http://investmentwatchblog.com/do-wall-street-insiders-expect-something-really-big-to-happen-very-soon/#2yPY68Ri5LYcpker.99)
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*sigh* It's not internment camps. It's union busting. The unionized workers were on strike for 6 days so the ferries and ships in port could not leave, thus depriving isolated islands of supplies. The non-unionized port of Piraeus ended up sending its ferries instead. And BTW, it HAS happened here. It's called Bloomberg threatening the public sanitation workers in NYC to get back to work. Maybe he was right, maybe he was wrong; but it really wasn't the beginning of some totalitarian meltdown.
Greece is in serious trouble, no doubt. And I'm usually a union supporter. But when a piece that you quote begins with an inflated diatribe, it's impossible to read whatever reasonable conclusion it might bear.
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Some light reading on Greece, and then I just wanted to learn more about so called """"FEMA"""" camps.
OBTW.
I just did a google search just now to find this stuff.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/may/29/christine-lagarde-pays-no-tax
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tt2yGzHfy7s
http://www.naturalnews.com/038844_DHS_assault_weapons_documents.html
http://publicintelligence.net/restricted-u-s-army-internment-and-resettlement-operations-manual/
http://www.goarmy.com/careers-and-jobs/browse-career-and-job-categories/legal-and-law-enforcement/internment-resettlement-specialist.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/14/us/14explorers.html?_r=3&hp&
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The part about the medical records is true because I do that for a living.
So how does that work viz a viz you being in compliance with the patient privacy aspects of Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act of 1996 (HIPA)???
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So how does that work viz a viz you being in compliance with the patient privacy aspects of Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act of 1996 (HIPA)???
I designed the middleware infrastructure that connects our large HMOs computer systems to each other and to the new NHIEs. In the past I wrote the messaging payload standards used to transport data over these networks. Everything we do now has a variety of mechanisms at the various layers to provide security to protect patient privacy. Although my company goes to great lengths to protect patient privacy, once it gets into the hands of the Feds, I suspect your medical history will be no more secure than your tax returns. After all, are they going to sue themselves if one of their employees violates their own HIPAA laws.
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This article sums up pretty well the consensus of thought about the impact of QE among economists that are not paid by the government.
The last paragraph gives a hint as to how one should prepare to position ones assets for the coming crisis.
By Lawrence Fuller at SeekingAlpha.com
Dear Chairman Bernanke,
I applauded your leadership in the spring of 2009 when you employed an unconventional monetary policy tool to reverse the fear-induced deflationary spiral in stock and bond prices during the financial crisis. It was this initial bond-purchase program, known as quantitative easing (QE1), which emboldened many of us to maintain an aggressively bullish outlook at the early stages of the recovery. Yet over the past four years, the quantitative easing that began as an economic resuscitation program has transformed itself into a life-support system for our financial markets, and alongside the rapidly diminishing returns this has meant for the real economy, escalating levels of risk continue to build. While you were successful in restoring some semblance of rationality in market valuations by purchasing Treasury bonds during the financial crisis in order to mitigate fear and restore confidence, I think it is reckless to manipulate valuations beyond what fundamentals would otherwise dictate today in an attempt to entice irrational exuberance, thus engineering a desired economic outcome.
You said late last year that your economic models indicate that continued bond buying will result in an increase in economic growth, creating jobs and lowering the unemployment rate. Are these the same models that guided monetary policy just prior to the financial crisis? As economic growth was slowing in July 2007, just five months before the onset of the Great Recession, you told us that "overall, the U.S. economy appears likely to expand at a moderate pace over the second half of 2007, with growth then strengthening a bit in 2008 to a rate close to the economy's underlying trend." That forecast did not pan out.
Today, we see an economic slowdown very similar to what we saw in 2007. The rate of growth has slowed from what was 4% more than a year ago to what looks to be less than 1% in the most recently reported quarter, despite more than $2 trillion of bond purchases to date. Instead of inflated home prices in the early stages of decline, it is corporate profits and revenues that have been inflated by fiscal and monetary policy stimulus. Corporate profits for S&P 500 companies are on track to decline for a second quarter in a row. That is not a good sign for growth, considering that previous consecutive quarterly declines were followed by recession. At the same time, you are encouraging investors to take more risk.
I hope that you have a better understanding of financial market fundamentals today than you did of real estate fundamentals in 2007, considering that you have openly targeted the stock market as your primary transmission mechanism for monetary policy. I fear that you do not. Your expertise seems limited to the recognition that each time you launched another quantitative easing program the stock market would rally until the program ended. Since the growth and job creation you expected did not follow, you launched one program after another until your most recent announcement to purchase Treasury debt and mortgage-backed securities indefinitely (QEternity). Have you considered the consequences of what might happen if your models that are forecasting the growth necessary to substantiate the stock market gains we have realized to date are wrong again? I don't think you have. Furthermore, your blitzkrieg of liquidity has muffled the market's ability to flash warning signs to investors. I recognize that most investors are not concerned with the means, when the end is higher stock and bond prices, just as most Americans were not concerned with the means by which home prices were artificially inflated and rising, that is until they began to fall.
By manipulating the prices and yields of the safest securities, you have forced investors to redirect money into increasingly higher-risk investments in an attempt to simply maintain purchasing power after taxes and inflation. This has become exceedingly difficult to accomplish for those of us that do not wish to speculate or assume substantial principal risk. I understand this to be your master plan -- inflate financial asset values to create a perception of wealth that will then encourage investors to spend money on goods and services. Yet this manipulation has a domino effect across a broad spectrum of fixed-income and equity assets, and centrally planning supply and demand in what used to be a free market has consequences.
Investors look at changes in the prices and yields of different types of fixed-income securities from a historical perspective in order to receive signals about developing economic risks. The recent decline in junk bond yields to all-time historic lows of 5.9% does not seem justified at this stage of the business cycle. Given the declining rates of growth in corporate revenues and the economy, junk bond yields should be rising, not falling.
The stock market used to be viewed as a similar discounting mechanism, or leading indicator, meaning that changes in trends were a window into the economic developments that lie ahead. However, you have deafened this indicator's forecasting ability as well with your Pavlovian monetary response to every market correction. Your counterpart at the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, has taken note. His primary focus is on keeping the sovereign yields of bankrupt countries like Spain below a certain threshold (6%) in order to give the perception that all is well. He has gone as far as to lend money, with your assistance, to insolvent banks, in order to create the artificial demand necessary to prop up prices of sovereign debt.
From my perspective, at a time when there is tremendous risk in the global economy and financial markets, we have an unprecedented suppression of the market's ability to measure or reflect that risk, because you have thwarted the pricing mechanism that rules free markets-supply and demand. You are attempting to engineer an economic outcome by manipulating the value of financial assets that should be reflections of that outcome, and not the catalysts to achieving it. The illusion of prosperity that you are helping to create is just that -- an illusion. Should real-world fundamentals continue to deteriorate, the illusion will lose its luster, volatility will soar, and financial markets will return to fair value. It is completely nonsensical to think that the solution to our economic plight is the same combination of low interest rates and abundant liquidity that led to the last crisis, especially when the primary benefactors are the same too-big-to-fail banks that built the last house of cards. It is naive to believe that they will be responsible the second time around. In fact, after the scandals at MF Global and JP Morgan, we know that they continue to be irresponsible.
The Fed is governed by a dual mandate to maintain stable prices and achieve full employment. It is also responsible for regulating our largest financial institutions and monitoring systemic risk. It is fair to argue that financial market stability is also a responsibility that falls on your shoulders, especially when you are attempting to influence market prices. Yet there has been no meaningful financial reform to date that prevents our too-big-to-fail banks from repeating the malinvestment that led to the last crisis. The excess reserves you have created, which are rapidly approaching $2 trillion, are not producing the demand for goods and services that our economy needs. They are instead being misallocated towards investment into financial markets. We have no idea what types of investments these banks hold or how much leverage is being employed.
My greatest concern is how you intend to centrally plan the smooth transition for investors from the bond market to the stock market in what is being coined "the great rotation." I see the potential for a repeat of 1994. I was a financial consultant with Merrill Lynch at that time, and vividly remember the most experienced of my piers being stunned by the extent of the losses in the bond market and the speed with which those losses occurred. I do not believe you have accounted for the loss of wealth that would result should a disorderly exit by banks, institutional investors and the investing public occur from the bond market as a result of current or future monetary policy.
If you were an investor, I would advise you to hold some of what everyone else hates -- cash. I would advise that you sell some of what everyone else wants to buy -- equities. Finally, I would recommend positioning your fixed-income holdings so as to be prepared now for a rise in interest rates and deterioration in credit quality that is as inevitable as the next stage of the business cycle.
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Interesting piece in the LAT today. They've conducted an audit of the Federal Reserve gold and it seems to be all there. They've also revalued its worth and increased it. cheryl o7o
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Emergency.... Emergency we just had a 7.9 earthquake event along the WW San Andres Fault.
Are you prepared?
Sadly enough ... in spite of my "preaching" we are not... i.e. finally got my first 55gal water barrell but have not put water in it yet.
Tell us, if you are not prepared, who do you think will help you in the case of a 7+ earthquake?
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This is an exercise!
Emergency.... Emergency we just had a 7.9 earthquake event along the WW San Andres Fault.
This is an exercise!
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Thanks Wrightwood.. and Mojave please don't do that again. Besides, this is an 'economic disaster' thread.. not an "earthquake disaster' thread. Please get your disaster posts straight.
If we did have a 7.9 on the San Andreas .. anywhere near us.. we would, more than likely, not be able to communicate on the Internet. We would probably not have telephone service.. TV would be out.. as would radio .. except for emergency radios. Except of course for our wonderful HAM operators. Elec could easily go out.. and water lines would be broken. I'm not even going to get into road access.
To bring this back to the point of this thread "economic disaster" .. I guess the 'sequestration' situation is ongoing and there are cuts coming down the pike. Witness the story about Immigration releasing low-level illegals the other day. I thought that a bit premature myself. Sort of 'shot across the bow' if you will.
But, hey.. we can all use these cuts as they may or may not come.. for practice for the real 'economic disaster' as posited by this thread. (Sidenote to those of you following this thread: When I was up looking for Miko yesterday.. I did a pit stop at Jenson's and stocked up on Chow Mein. So, the barter rates could easily go up here if we're reduced to that.)
At this point I think John Boehner needs to channel Lyndon Johnson.. I guess we'll all see. cheryl o7o
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