"Dedicated taxes" are always a scam. Suppose the general fund already spends $20 billion on roads...then the "dedicated" tax raises $30 billion. They'll spend $30 billion on roads (not 50!) because they legally must, but it frees them to spend the previous $20 billion on other things you didn't vote for. Someday CA will stop voting stupid...
I agree, and I don't.
I agree that an increase earmarked for roads means that much is released for "other purposes" -- and those may not be what we want our government to fund.
This is one place where the tax (on fuel) for each taxpayer is proportional to their use of the roads. Those who don't own cars and don't drive still benefit, but they also contribute since groceries and other items, taxis and ride-sharing services include fuel taxes as part of their costs.
As it sits now, the entire new $5 billion in taxes goes to the general fund, and can be spent for whatever the legislators wish. If fuel tax monies went to a dedicated fund, we'd get at least that much spent -- and the money would come from those who use roads, in proportion to their use.
Using your math, we're guaranteed somewhere between $50 billion, and zero, just depending.