Comments by Richard Minnich PhD

[clint]

There was an interesting interview on NPR yesterday with Richard Minnich, professor of Fire Ecology UCR.

The comments I found of most interest were:

We are only in the first year of a drought, and not even an official drought yet. The heavy rains of two years ago are still providing ground water to the conifers and they are not currently drought stressed. In fact they are hydrated enough that he does not expect a resurgence of bark beetle this season.

There was so little rain this year, that the flashy fuels, grasses, have not emerged to provide a lot of tender for ignition. Light grasses are way below normal and that may help by generating fewer road side starts.

Even with the die off of so many trees due to bark beetle, and the removal of those trees, the forest is still way over stocked. Specifically around Crestline, Rim Forest, Cedar Pines Park.

He has great concerns for the front country. saying Monrovia Paek has not burned in eighty years, and the old Bel-Air/ Brentwood burn is now 46 years old and is ready again.

[FSfirefighter]

Clint,

I would take what Dr. Minnich says with a grain of salt. He shoots from the hip without a lot of facts in much of what he says.

1) SoCal is currently is EXTREME DROUGHT: http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/drmon.gif

2) The 2003/2004 rainfall year was above average. It was the only rainfall year since the 2000/2001 that has been above average. The 2005/2006 rainfall year was about 60% of normal in most areas. The large grass crop from the 2003/2004 rainfall year is still around and contributing to fire spread this year, particularly on the desert slopes.

3) The majority of the rains for the 2003/2004 rainfall year were excessive in nature causing extensive runoff and not absorption into the water table or the soils. For most areas, the number of rainfall days was approx. 50% of normal, while the percentage of precipitation was between 150-200%.

4) For the record setting 2006/2007 rainfall year, we also had another compounding factor. After each small precipitation event, warm and windy conditions developed resulting in evaporation of what little moisture made it to the ground.

Records on file.

[clint]

Yeah, I've kept up with all the contreversy over Minnich's ideas for years.

[RobertW]

I do have to say that the trees, at least around our property, are not "stressed" as of yet.

They look very healthy with the needles being a deep dark green.  There are no dead needles anywhere in the trees around our place.

No doubt that will change as the weeks roll on.